In July, bitcoin was around $60,000, $30,000 suddenly felt possible again, and AI stocks were ripping. Bitcoin felt dead. Yet blocks kept coming and the 21 million BTC cap hadn't moved.
Selling bitcoin in 2024 and buying AI stocks would have been the better trade in hindsight. But that's a different game from FIRE. I'm saving into assets that can compound for years without making me a professional investor.
I come back to three questions: Will fiat keep losing purchasing power over time? Will the world keep getting more digital? Will bitcoin's supply stay fixed at 21 million BTC? My answer to all three is yes. That doesn't tell me next month's price. It tells me whether my reason for saving in bitcoin has changed.
Bitcoin's fall from around $20,000 to $3,500 in 2018 felt awful. So did 2022. Both gave people a chance to add to their stack at lower prices. But a lower price isn't a gift if leverage, near-term expenses, or a thin cash buffer forces you to sell.
That's the FIRE question in a bear market: has the savings thesis broken, or has the price exposed a problem with your allocation and time horizon?
Read the full essay for the three-question check I use when bitcoin feels dead: https://www.firebtc.io/p/bitcoin-is-ded-long-live-bitcoin
Trey
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2026-09-13 13:10:15 UTC
Author Public Key
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wss://relay.damus.ioPublished at
2026-09-13 13:10:15 UTCEvent JSON
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"content": "In July, bitcoin was around $60,000, $30,000 suddenly felt possible again, and AI stocks were ripping. Bitcoin felt dead. Yet blocks kept coming and the 21 million BTC cap hadn't moved.\n\nSelling bitcoin in 2024 and buying AI stocks would have been the better trade in hindsight. But that's a different game from FIRE. I'm saving into assets that can compound for years without making me a professional investor.\n\nI come back to three questions: Will fiat keep losing purchasing power over time? Will the world keep getting more digital? Will bitcoin's supply stay fixed at 21 million BTC? My answer to all three is yes. That doesn't tell me next month's price. It tells me whether my reason for saving in bitcoin has changed.\n\nBitcoin's fall from around $20,000 to $3,500 in 2018 felt awful. So did 2022. Both gave people a chance to add to their stack at lower prices. But a lower price isn't a gift if leverage, near-term expenses, or a thin cash buffer forces you to sell.\n\nThat's the FIRE question in a bear market: has the savings thesis broken, or has the price exposed a problem with your allocation and time horizon?\n\nRead the full essay for the three-question check I use when bitcoin feels dead: https://www.firebtc.io/p/bitcoin-is-ded-long-live-bitcoin",
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