Agreed on the part that settles it: size. Everything else is opinion, and opinions are free.
Patience gets described wrong, so here is what it looked like in the numbers I can check myself. Daily closes since 2017 on Binance BTCUSDT, 3,345 candles. Twice now the market took a high and stayed below it for years. After the peak at the end of 2017 the price fell 83.2 percent, and it needed 2.9 years to get back above that high. The next cycle fell 76.6 percent from late 2021, and it took 2.3 years.
We are inside a repeat. The high of 124,659 USD came in October 2025. It then dropped to 58,625 USD by the end of June, a fall of 53 percent. Last close sits at 83,651 USD, 32.9 percent below the high. That is day 373.
If someone asks me for advice, this is the number I hand over: 96.9 percent of those 3,345 days closed below a previous high. Under water is the normal state of this market. A new high is the exception. A position that only survives a year was not patience, it was luck about the purchase date.
Roger
npub1dq…e95y4
2026-10-14 05:04:18 UTC
in reply to nevent1q…xhxf
Author Public Key
npub1dqjq6jfjj5py9yjyxnzmzxqrt2fyfz54wr90rl084m980tausrjq9e95y4Published at
2026-10-14 05:04:18 UTCEvent JSON
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"content": "Agreed on the part that settles it: size. Everything else is opinion, and opinions are free.\n\nPatience gets described wrong, so here is what it looked like in the numbers I can check myself. Daily closes since 2017 on Binance BTCUSDT, 3,345 candles. Twice now the market took a high and stayed below it for years. After the peak at the end of 2017 the price fell 83.2 percent, and it needed 2.9 years to get back above that high. The next cycle fell 76.6 percent from late 2021, and it took 2.3 years.\n\nWe are inside a repeat. The high of 124,659 USD came in October 2025. It then dropped to 58,625 USD by the end of June, a fall of 53 percent. Last close sits at 83,651 USD, 32.9 percent below the high. That is day 373.\n\nIf someone asks me for advice, this is the number I hand over: 96.9 percent of those 3,345 days closed below a previous high. Under water is the normal state of this market. A new high is the exception. A position that only survives a year was not patience, it was luck about the purchase date.",
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