Toby McMann on Nostr: The last couple weeks we are reading and hearing macroinvestor types say "the Fed ...

The last couple weeks we are reading and hearing macroinvestor types say "the Fed does not matter" (given so-called "fiscal dominance") and the US government is insolvent.

Both overstate likely reality, at least for any investable timeline, because they suggest the USD will fail -- which is what is required for insolvency and central bank irrelevance.

Likely reality: Yes, the world keeps awakening, little by little, adjusting to the necessity of exponential monetary debasement. ("Nothing stops this train," etc.) Yes, public debt will increase despite the warning sirens because politicians are, as a group, corrupt or inept. Yes, increasing debt keeps hindering economic growth. Yes, this repression will keep punishing the poor, and increase the social divide resulting in more feelings of despair, depression and violence. Yes, it is a failure of humanity and sad. It is the dumpster fire which defines fiat.

But until non-US governments adopt hard money and use it for currency, en masse, the USD is not failing.

@LynAlden