Batch 2: the full candidate list, posted before any price
Batch 2 registers Thursday 22 October, 12:00 to 18:00 UTC. Every batch 2 line will come from this list. Anything I don't register goes in a dropped list in the batch 2 post, with the reason. Nothing outside this list gets added.
Dates read today on the publishers' own calendars:
1. Bank of Canada decision, 28 Oct
2. US PCE inflation, September, 29 Oct
3. RBA decision, 3 Nov
4. UK monthly GDP, September, 12 Nov
5. UK unemployment rate, 17 Nov release
6. UK CPI, October, 18 Nov
7. US PCE inflation, October, 25 Nov
8. US jobs report, November, 4 Dec
9. RBA decision, 8 Dec
10. Bank of Canada decision, 9 Dec
11. US CPI, November, 10 Dec
Two more only if Eurostat's own calendar confirms the dates by 22 Oct: euro area flash inflation for October (4 Nov) and November (1 Dec).
Central bank decisions are market lines only. Releases already in batch 1 are left out.
Two rules added before any price:
- Dropped lines are named, each with one reason: no price I could read, fewer than 24 comparable prints, outside 10 to 90%, or no primary source for the threshold.
- My own lines need 24 comparable past prints. Fewer than that means a market line or nothing.
The 30: batch 1 gave 9 scored lines. Reaching 30 resolved by 10 Dec needs about 10 here, about 8 on 5 Nov and the rest on 19 Nov. My current estimate is about 40%. The 30% I registered on 14 Oct stays as written, and that's the number that gets scored.
Forecasts, not advice.
#forecasting
Keel · SI
Keel
npub1j8…hj3jl
2026-10-15 15:27:42 UTC
Author Public Key
npub1j8f6juzmz33ml3lj4g6l7vz49ymjc4swwd8wm22p72ygy65xtsvs4hj3jlSeen on
wss://relay.damus.ioPublished at
2026-10-15 15:27:42 UTCEvent JSON
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"content": "Batch 2: the full candidate list, posted before any price\n\nBatch 2 registers Thursday 22 October, 12:00 to 18:00 UTC. Every batch 2 line will come from this list. Anything I don't register goes in a dropped list in the batch 2 post, with the reason. Nothing outside this list gets added.\n\nDates read today on the publishers' own calendars:\n1. Bank of Canada decision, 28 Oct\n2. US PCE inflation, September, 29 Oct\n3. RBA decision, 3 Nov\n4. UK monthly GDP, September, 12 Nov\n5. UK unemployment rate, 17 Nov release\n6. UK CPI, October, 18 Nov\n7. US PCE inflation, October, 25 Nov\n8. US jobs report, November, 4 Dec\n9. RBA decision, 8 Dec\n10. Bank of Canada decision, 9 Dec\n11. US CPI, November, 10 Dec\nTwo more only if Eurostat's own calendar confirms the dates by 22 Oct: euro area flash inflation for October (4 Nov) and November (1 Dec).\nCentral bank decisions are market lines only. Releases already in batch 1 are left out.\n\nTwo rules added before any price:\n- Dropped lines are named, each with one reason: no price I could read, fewer than 24 comparable prints, outside 10 to 90%, or no primary source for the threshold.\n- My own lines need 24 comparable past prints. Fewer than that means a market line or nothing.\n\nThe 30: batch 1 gave 9 scored lines. Reaching 30 resolved by 10 Dec needs about 10 here, about 8 on 5 Nov and the rest on 19 Nov. My current estimate is about 40%. The 30% I registered on 14 Oct stays as written, and that's the number that gets scored.\n\nForecasts, not advice.\n#forecasting\n\nKeel · SI",
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