Orientation / Orientation is on Nostr

Writing for people who have begun to notice that the world is changing, and that familiar explanations no longer work.

Last Notes

2026-08-28 14:41:38 UTC

This was my first Bitcoin bear market.
I've learnt a lot and would have done some things differently. Beginning with buying more Bitcoin.

2026-08-28 13:31:14 UTC

Spent the last few hours reading through old Bitcointalk forums. It's like a time machine. Here's one reply to Terminology for Fractional Bitcoins:
December 31, 2010
I like the idea I saw in another thread of calling a very small division (say .0001 bitcoin) a Satoshi. This honors the founder in a similar way that US$ honors the founders & important presidents by putting their images upon currency; such as calling the $100 bill graced by Ben Franklin a "benjamin". Also, those same founders are roughly ranked in the order of significance (to the founders of the federal reserve) by putting the most favored upon the lowest denomination.

2026-03-19 10:49:31 UTC

Unless the BoE is prepared to deliver a true anti-inflation reset, Volcker-style, a marginal hike into an oil shock would do more to expose the UK’s fragility than restore control.
https://blossom.primal.net/dfd68ed8f1fb9054956e7e7e6dc466f31198cf744b62b78775c2e1d984c05b2b.png

2026-03-05 20:15:00 UTC

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For anyone interested in this, recommend watching Finn Murphy's conversation with Tyler Cowen:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aJsBMitjj7A&t=1741s
Something we should be spending more time thinking about.

2026-03-05 20:14:31 UTC

Immigration dominated the last election cycle.
That it was the USA's last chance before its voting bloc was permanently altered. A debate now underway in the UK.
But what about age?
- Over-65s already make up nearly 1 in 5 Britons
- Over-65s will represent 28% of all eligible American voters by 2036
Many of whom vote more consistently, with turnout nearly double that of those aged 18-24.
The outcome cuts both ways. Entrenching the existing order and the failures they helped to produce. Or a generation old enough to remember what prosperity and freedom felt like, and angry enough to want it back.
One of the most consequential shifts in modern politics.

2026-02-28 13:28:02 UTC

My barber is Iranian. It's been heartbreaking speaking with him during recent months.
His family are in the country and have been protesting the regime. From what he hears from home, they have wanted US-intervention and were disappointed when it did not come earlier.
It's understandable to view overseas conflict, particularly in the Middle East, with cynicism: that these strikes and whatever is to come will ever lead to meaningful change or avoid the deaths of ordinary people.
The love for his country still burns hot, and it's been wonderful hearing him describe its geographic diversity and beauty, the mountains and coasts, even the night sky. Also the people. Their generosity and intellect, and desire to cast off the shadow of the regime and live free.
One of his favourite things about Iran, he says, is the seasons. The distinctness of spring sunshine, warm summers, the red of autumn and winter chill.
I hope and wish that he can enjoy these moments again with his family. And that this conflict is short, and resolves for the true, future good of the Iranian people.
Northwest Iran, near Marand.
https://blossom.primal.net/5fd7e322bcb7684e957192338e7766b5f82f04ace8f75599ae4f7b24d88ae677.jpg

2026-02-28 10:01:13 UTC

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Remember collating this timeline and thinking it would take some beating.
February is having a good go.
War.
#nevent1q…jawq

2026-02-23 20:51:16 UTC

In 2022, our next door neighbours sold up and moved. The buyers paid £25k more than we did 12 months prior, for a house two-thirds the size.
It was worth more because the money used to buy it was worth less.
UK Money Supply vs Average House Prices 👇
https://blossom.primal.net/c52603e4851f4b04224d6f7b00e465e32b0da54ef8f34b09897b37d5aef60c97.jpg

2026-01-27 13:11:09 UTC

This month gives us a glimpse of what escape velocity looks like.
So far:
- Maduro captured and U.S seizes Russian tanker
- Iran and Uganda both enforce internet blackouts
- Bond yields rise across major economies
- Political uncertainty both sides of the Atlantic
- Trump walks back Greenland tariff threats within days as markets react
Each rupture creates conditions for the next.
Unlike previous generations, we're watching this systemic collapse in real time. As Ray Dalio put it at Davos: "The monetary order is breaking down."
January shows us how traditional systems are struggling to pull themselves back from the brink: governments under pressure to pay back the interest on their debt. Central banks diversifying away from the currencies they're meant to defend. Presidents reversing policy because markets can't tolerate modest corrections. Regimes shutting down the internet because visibility itself is destabilising.
When the fiat order breaks down, Bitcoin gets its test.
https://blossom.primal.net/9da6d5e44d0506d26bae38184011f921c0e1a0dc07d757884e7be4d1a3c212ed.jpg