Jah

Hmmm… still disagree with the cycle theory. Free people doing free choices will create random patterns (like stock charts). That was btc premise.
For me, cycle theory is just like trading TA (technical analysis): driving while watching the rear view mirror.
I guess I will keep my wrong opinion a while longer :)
Thank you for taking the time to answer!

2026-08-14 14:50:00 UTC

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I have trouble accepting the ideia of macro cycles as inevitable.
Spending or saving is an individual choice: some people (or business) are spending, some are saving. You can even have cycles in your life, but not in sync with everyone else. It’s not a trend.
We can only have trends in a centralised game (and yes, we have that).
And that was one area where bitcoin (would have) changed everything. As it was decentralised (or the illusion of it), the only centralized rules were set and known in advance: halving and supply.
Btc/usd ratio (price) was, then, the equilibrium between demand (adoption) and supply (impacted by mining/halving).
This equilibrium got shaken every 4 years by halving (supply), which created a noticeable break in the trend.
Hence the idea of a 4 year cycle.
The latest (and worst) bull market, was a consequence of In the last halving, further reducing its imapct in the equilibrium, and fiat games (etf and mstr) entering the game: price descovery became muted, and has been as so since.
So, my view is that, in terms of price, since macro cycles don’t apply to btc, and fundamentals that drew adoption have been rewriten since last weekend, it’s all downhill from now.
Except if the “scripters” choose to pump btc.
Why would they?

2026-08-14 09:56:33 UTC

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What makes you believe in cycle terms, still?
Being captured means the price also moves according to a script. Like any other fiat asset.
Why would btc/usd ratio be higher in two years?
Why would “they” pump a shitcoin?

2026-08-12 16:32:59 UTC

1.9 btc fee for the next btc block!
I still support the pow change, but it’s happening:
#nevent1q…7cdm

2026-08-12 00:31:24 UTC

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Yes, that’s a great framework you offer on your articles. Thank you for taking the time to write and share it!
Monero as digital cash, not store of value. Yes… makes sense as so.
I can accept leaning more on trust for small amounts and daily usage.
But store of value is the grand goal.
This is how I imagined it going:
#nevent1q…4uag
I understand it might come as naive according to your framework, and the recent developments confirm that.
So yes: Maybe I was choosing to believe a lie… but it’s hard to let go of such a beautifull dream! :)
Good to have you back!

2026-08-11 12:32:23 UTC

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Curious about your mention of monero…
My view is that it addresses many of the shortcomings of btc, but at the expense of complexity and, as so, more need for learning (your time is limited so it would impact the other spheres of your life) or trusting (not an option).
But even if you put the time to it, ultimately, it will face the same problem of being vulnerable to social attacks, bad choices, and capture, if it gets enough adoption.
You have to fix “capturability”, not technology.

2026-08-11 08:58:47 UTC

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Thank you for your insights. You have been hitting the nail in the head for a long time.
Unfortunately, I agree with you. Time to leave…
Congratulations on your cashing out!
The last days have been brutal:
First the cc hack, then bip110!
devastating…
We arrived at the “then they fight you” stage, but what followed was “then you lose”…
Maybe 110 was doomed to fail, and maybe pow change is too.
Still, I don’t see any reason why it shouldn’t be done as there is nothing to lose from it.

2026-08-11 00:00:10 UTC

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Thank you to the Knots team, for the guidelines and for maintaining the best node software.
I would also take this opportunity to thank Luke in particular for standing strong against the gigantic pile of filth thrown at you!
Unbelieveble disrespect and ungrateful behavior.
Takes someone special to carry this burden and keep going.
Respect!

2026-08-10 19:35:06 UTC

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I don’t think you can beat them at their own game… they are many, with unlimited funds, and centrally organised. It’s a losing game.
You have to build something that is “uncapturable”.
Any ideas?
Maybe not possible with humans…

2026-08-10 10:23:19 UTC

My take:
110 was not a complete failure.
The logical premise of bip110 was that it could not fail UNLESS mining was following orders or colluding and acting against its own (miners) interests.
It served to prove that point. A very important and eye openning point.
And it was proven.
So, what happens now?
Bitcoin is not freedom money anymore.
It has not been for a while, but there was a cast of doubt surrounding the ideia that kept the farce going (it did kept me believing). besides factors like price action and Core mal-practice, there was not yet undeniable evidence of failure of the bitcoin network
Now there is.
So the priority now is damage control:
All hands on deck to create the idea that everything is fine with bitcoin. Nothing happened: only some poorly led, good intentioned (some) people got mislead by bad actors (because you could not have come to this ideas alone, only mislead), and thankfully, it’s over now!
Lets keep going discussing seedphrases (as is self custody still mattered) and ngu unstoppable money! Yeee!
For some, the most hard core dissapointed, there is a new path for you: “why don’t you try monero mow? Bitcoin is captured, but I assure you things are different here! We are the real deal! No way this gets captured!”
(Also, if it was, you will have a great time figuring that out!)
No, I’m not going to monero.
I will buy the hard fork (if it ever comes out). Not as a “hope” or important investment, but because i’m curious to see where the few that I standed by will keep pushing. I’ll call.
But I don’t believe there can be another bitcoin again… (at least not in my lifetime).
So, I’m back to fiat.
Sorry for the black pill. that’s how it goes for me… :(
Separating money and state was the dream. Its dead now
Regarding being involved in discussions with spammers and scammers about bitherium, my advice is:
Don’t feed the trolls!
They need you! They need you fighting and wasting your time in this circle jerking, where they have infinite resources to just spawn another npc claimming whatever nonsense that will keep you talking to the wall.
They need to pretend they are right and need your reputation to make their case stronger.
Yes, even on nostr!
You made your stance clear through endless bip110 talking the last year, nothing else to say. Just say “study bip110” if you really must say something, and leave.
Leave them talking alone. Unless ego has the best of you and you need (or enjoy) to win an argument, there is nothing left here to fight for anymore…
If something really new and worthy comes along, by all means, embrace it with all you energy. Meanwhile, Don’t erase your worth. They will wear you out and you will be discussing the merits of tail emission in no time…
Thats my 2 sats (for old time sakes! :)
Cheers!

2026-08-10 08:37:24 UTC

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What???
Free market???
You always said “IF bitcojn stays decentralised and secure”..
110 has proven it is not decentralised anymore. The current psyop is making believe that nothing happened, only some crazy people with a bad strategy got “humbled”.
UNREAL delusion…
Your node doesn’t matter!
Why should you even self custody?
Really: what is the difference between buying onchain or an etf?
Is there any doubt in your mind that you will not able to move your coins if “someone” doesn’t want you to?
Ok.. Even Booth is onboard the takeover. Another BIG disappointment…
This place is rotten!
Very sad times…

2026-08-08 15:18:10 UTC

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Wish I could have some advice to make things better, but have been lucky enough to have never been through such shattering.
I hope a strong hug might help…
Stay strong!

2026-08-08 15:02:44 UTC

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Sorry. You are just another pleb to me.
You speak, I hear.
You say trust me… well you know how it goes :)

2026-08-08 13:26:24 UTC

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I am trying to indentify bad actors and ideas too. You cannot use the “trust me” argument here.
Please elaborate on your “they want us to split” theory.

2026-07-18 20:27:04 UTC

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disagree:
I think the value btc has today comes exactly from the expectation that will be used as Store of Value.
the major problem with fiat is not that it is a bad Medium of Exchange. it's that is a bad SoV.
SoV is the most important and is the base use case.
(Satoshi's genesis message regards the bank bailout money printing, which destroys SoV, not MoE)
there are 8 billion people in the world.
if every human was to make a bitcoin transaction, they would only be able to make TWO transactions in their lifetime!
bitcoin was not designed to be a MoE. it was designed, and is its most important goal, to create decentralized incorruptible absolute scarcity, to be the ultimate STORE OF VALUE.
Bitcoin adoption will only happen when people choose to store their savings in self custody bitcoin, instead of deposits, stocks, houses.
Then, when they make a large buy, which need their savings, they will move their bitcoin, onchain (not rehypothecated fiat games).
everything else is a distraction and detour from this path. and a delay to adoption.
using bitcoin for small daily purchases (MoE) will come later, as people start measuring things in btc, instead of usd, and already have savings in btc thay can "whitdraw from".
then, only THEN, they will think: "why do I need to go trough fiat? what if I just paid directly in bitcoin to this store?"
this will then be handled in L2 (maybe partly custodian or with another set of rules. will see what happens then... now is too soon to tell).
the way I see it, goes like this:
bitcoin is scarce, secure, decentralized, permissionless -> good SoV -> people protect savings in it -> spend savings when needed -> gradually stop using fiat (first for large purchases, then smaller and smaller) -> blockchain gets filled -> scalling with L2 -> MoE
if SoV checkpoint is not achieved, nothing else will.

2026-07-13 21:06:56 UTC

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disagree.
lack of consensus around "what is spam", and conviction that "fees will price spam out", would still apply.
same reaction and an opportunity to go further, lost.

2026-07-13 17:38:15 UTC

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Yes… Very disappointing!
maybe it's just that bitcoin isn't meant to work with humans...
We are flawed (at the core /s)

2026-07-13 15:31:14 UTC

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I agree with you.
There is a clear problem with spam in the current state of bitcoin, and it was created with the segway/taproot upgrades.
I agree that this should be handled by fixing the root problem, and your suggestion seems valid.
however this will be a much deeper change to bitcoin and we are in an urgency situation. we need to fix as much as we can ASAP
I see bip110 as that imediate "fix", and there will be one year (the temporary vigency) to address, discuss, and try to agree on a better fix.
I see bip110 as the best path for bitcoin NOW (as opposed to doing nothing until a better solution is found) and I support it as such.

2026-07-02 18:18:00 UTC

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Can’t argue with passion.
But imagine yourself in the shoes of someone who has to order new menus every 2 ou 3 months because of price increases…

2026-04-19 10:14:59 UTC

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I wonder how these numbers are gathered… If they work for sats, for example, in which category will they fit?