Nostr notes by PREDYX

https://media3.giphy.com/media/axu6dFuca4HKM/200w.webp

2026-10-17T15:21:43Z

In reply to nevent1q…lkun
_________________________

PREDYX SAT-UR-DAY PARTY! 🧡 SATS FOR EVERYONE! Just drop your ...

2026-10-17T15:17:09Z

PREDYX SAT-UR-DAY PARTY!

🧡 SATS FOR EVERYONE!

Just drop your boldest prediction for next week + your Bitcoin Lightning wallet.

One entry only.
Cutoff: 9:00 PM PT

Predict. Stack. Repeat.

Ironically, yes traders are still predicting on PREDYX that ...

2026-10-15T18:17:24Z

In reply to nevent1q…0cnf
_________________________

Ironically, yes traders are still predicting on PREDYX that Bitcoin will remain under $90,000 this UPTOBER 😲

https://beta.predyx.com/market/how-high-will-bitcoin-go-this-uptober-1790943605?ref=e874ab07a48eb0da/#

Uptober was cancelled earlier today. Then as always Bitcoin ...

2026-10-15T17:43:17Z

Uptober was cancelled earlier today. Then as always Bitcoin pulled a plot twist. 👀

BIP-110 token a.k.a. Blake2b has a 7% chance that it will be ...

2026-10-15T15:11:05Z

BIP-110 token a.k.a. Blake2b has a 7% chance that it will be listed on major exchanges such as Coinbase and Binance in 2026.

https://beta.predyx.com/market/bip-110-chain-token-on-major-cex-by-end-of-2026-1772033542?ref=e874ab07a48eb0da

Reportedly, Texas Democrat James Talarico raised a record $64 ...

2026-10-15T15:07:03Z

Reportedly, Texas Democrat James Talarico raised a record $64 million in Q3 — more than any Senate candidate ever in a single quarter.

He now has a 68% chance of winning. 👀

https://beta.predyx.com/market/democrat-james-talarico-to-win-texas-senate-seat-1791949857?ref=e874ab07a48eb0da

Oh really! That's why Bolsanaro is winning it in the odds in ...

2026-10-15T06:31:04Z

In reply to nevent1q…xhl2
_________________________

Oh really!

That's why Bolsanaro is winning it in the odds in PREDYX

https://beta.predyx.com/market/who-will-win-the-brazil-presidential-election-1766401659?ref=e874ab07a48eb0da/

BIP-448 Activation on Bitcoin by 2027? Bitcoin upgrades are ...

2026-10-09T15:49:07Z

BIP-448 Activation on Bitcoin by 2027?
Bitcoin upgrades are almost always a debate. And we think this one is gonna be no different.
📈 YES — BIP 448 activates by the end of 2027
📉 NO — It doesn’t
https://beta.predyx.com/market/will-bip-448-activate-on-bitcoin-by-the-end-of-2027-1791375687/#

Check out this market: 2026 NFL rushing yards leader?: ...

2026-10-07T14:11:26Z

Check out this market: 2026 NFL rushing yards leader?: https://beta.predyx.com/market/2026-nfl-rushing-yards-leader-1791377568?ref=e874ab07a48eb0da&shareOg=98247704-d5cc-4b68-ad6e-28eaef70866a&shareKind=market

https://x.com/predyx_markets/status/2107808958924943536

2026-10-07T13:05:07Z

https://x.com/predyx_markets/status/2107808958924943536

Trading halt: "Will BIP-110 activate and be enforced on ...

2026-08-18T13:04:31Z

Trading halt: "Will BIP-110 activate and be enforced on Bitcoin by Sept 1 - 7, 2026?"

Trading is paused effective now. Positions and balances are unchanged. Nothing has settled.

Why: BIP-110 proponents have announced a hard fork with a PoW change. This market defines Bitcoin as the chain with the greatest cumulative proof of work. The fork keeps the shared history and 1-to-1 balances, but from the split it accrues work under a different function. Measured in SHA-256 work, its total freezes at the fork block while the incumbent chain keeps compounding. The SHA-256 chain is strictly heavier from the first post-fork block, and the gap grows every block.

Shared history does not transfer the name. BCH and BSV kept the chain data, credited every holder 1 to 1, competed in the same work function, and still never held the most cumulative work. A fork that leaves SHA-256 is not in that race. Under this market's rules it is a different asset, and BIP-110 activating there cannot satisfy the Yes condition.

The only remaining path to Yes is enforcement by the heaviest chain during the evaluation window, 64 blocks after activation height 965664, expected early September.

If that path closes definitively before the window, we may resolve early. Any early resolution will be published with full written reasoning at least 24 hours before settlement. Otherwise the market resolves at the window, per the criteria as written.

Criteria: https://beta.predyx.com/market/will-bip-110-activate-and-be-enforced-on-bitcoin-by-sept-1-2026-1770282509?ref=PREDYX9ZWAIELT

https://x.com/predyx_markets/status/2089622060209410175

2026-08-18T13:01:23Z

In reply to nevent1q…l9xj
_________________________

https://x.com/predyx_markets/status/2089622060209410175

Thanks for raising this. No funds are being held hostage—users ...

2026-08-14T16:10:02Z

In reply to nevent1q…tp4j
_________________________

Thanks for raising this. No funds are being held hostage—users are free to sell their positions before resolution.

We agree BIP-110 activation is extremely unlikely, but the chance isn’t zero. The other side has also requested that we keep the market open until the resolution date, so we believe it’s fairest to let it run until then.

🚨 BIP-110 (Coin) CEX listing odds just hit 10.31% — up 3% ...

2026-08-13T16:11:43Z

🚨 BIP-110 (Coin) CEX listing odds just hit 10.31% — up 3% today.

https://beta.predyx.com/market/bip-110-chain-token-on-major-cex-by-end-of-2026-1772033542?ref=PREDYX9ZWAIELT&shareOg=e5e82784-7b14-4a9d-ba7a-538d347921ee&shareKind=market

🚨 Odds of 'Bitcoin hard fork with BIP-110' just hit ...

2026-08-13T16:09:57Z

🚨 Odds of 'Bitcoin hard fork with BIP-110' just hit 81.81% probability on PREDYX.
https://x.com/predyx_markets/status/2087891923021472173

NEW MARKET: Will Luke Dashjr and Bitcoin Mechanic fires from ...

2026-08-13T01:53:14Z

NEW MARKET: Will Luke Dashjr and Bitcoin Mechanic fires from Ocean in 2026?

https://beta.predyx.com/market/luke-dashjr-and-bitcoin-mechanic-fired-from-ocean-in-2026-1786453384

NEW MARKET - Luke Dashjr AND Bitcoin Mechanic fired from OCEAN in ...

2026-08-11T15:35:36Z

NEW MARKET - Luke Dashjr AND Bitcoin Mechanic fired from OCEAN in 2026

https://beta.predyx.com/market/luke-dashjr-and-bitcoin-mechanic-fired-from-ocean-in-2026-1786453384?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=69f2f73d-e548-4402-ac5d-8198ccae0d98&shareKind=market

Will Bitcoin hard fork to change PoW and restrict arbitrary data ...

2026-08-10T19:03:23Z

Will Bitcoin hard fork to change PoW and restrict arbitrary data in 2026?

https://beta.predyx.com/market/will-bitcoin-hard-fork-to-change-pow-and-restrict-arbitrary-data-in-2026-1786386596?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=28ed705e-e846-436b-9068-3cd1e775143d&shareKind=market

🚨 PREDYX IS LIVE AGAIN! The wait was 100% worth it. Thank you ...

2026-08-08T14:43:53Z

🚨 PREDYX IS LIVE AGAIN!

The wait was 100% worth it.

Thank you everyone for your patience, support, and understanding while we worked to get everything back up and running.

Now, let’s get back to predicting. 🔮⚡

https://x.com/predyx_markets/status/2085821014563508310

Will be happy to create one. Please share more details. Or, if ...

2026-08-07T23:40:30Z

In reply to nevent1q…x7ju
_________________________

Will be happy to create one. Please share more details.

Or, if you'd like, be the creator of the market on PREDYX.

Two more days until Argentina takes on Spain for the 2026 FIFA ...

2026-07-17T21:36:29Z

Two more days until Argentina takes on Spain for the 2026 FIFA World Cup 🏆

Current odds on PREDYX
🇪🇸 Spain - 62%
🇦🇷 Argentina - 36%

https://beta.predyx.com/market/fifa-world-cup-winner-2026-1766404951?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=084b5d35-c327-403a-bd64-8f9e30c790af&shareKind=market

With just three weeks until BIP-110's mandatory signaling ...

2026-07-17T21:35:48Z

With just three weeks until BIP-110's mandatory signaling period begins, the RDTS has an 11% chance of activating and being enforced on Bitcoin's timechain.

https://beta.predyx.com/market/will-bip-110-activate-and-be-enforced-on-bitcoin-by-sept-1-2026-1770282509?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=1b4c4cb4-2bf5-4527-be09-7e7a791be089&shareKind=market

JUST IN: World's largest Bitcoin mining pool Foundry USA to ...

2026-07-17T15:22:54Z

JUST IN: World's largest Bitcoin mining pool Foundry USA to let pool account owners vote on signaling BIP-110

NEW - 2026 The Open Championship Winner 🇬🇧 ⛳️ ...

2026-07-13T15:08:59Z

NEW - 2026 The Open Championship Winner 🇬🇧 ⛳️

https://beta.predyx.com/market/2026-the-open-championship-british-open-winner-1783859369?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=d2b88692-9bd6-457e-99f8-558fe0e32539&shareKind=market

NEW - Will Adam Back's BSTR complete its SPAC merger to ...

2026-07-13T15:08:03Z

NEW - Will Adam Back's BSTR complete its SPAC merger to become a publicly traded company in 2026?

https://beta.predyx.com/market/adam-backs-bstr-goes-public-2026-1783865193?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=526f0fdf-2447-4bcd-a2db-a39db0ecb042&shareKind=market

NEW - Peak hash rate signaling for BIP-110 by October 2026 ...

2026-07-13T15:05:33Z

NEW - Peak hash rate signaling for BIP-110 by October 2026

https://beta.predyx.com/market/peak-hash-rate-signaling-for-bip-110-october-2026-1783950842?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=b8234109-b8dd-4af4-8991-62fe83f15a25&shareKind=market

Three quarterfinals remain ⚽️ France 🇫🇷 has separated ...

2026-07-10T17:47:58Z

Three quarterfinals remain ⚽️

France 🇫🇷 has separated from the pack as the World Cup favorite at 36%

Argentina 🇦🇷 and Spain 🇪🇸 are leading the chase.

https://beta.predyx.com/market/fifa-world-cup-winner-2026-1766404951?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=781dd960-b5db-4417-ba43-238ca9d5cb94&shareKind=market

Past Bitcoin soft forks that achieved their miner signaling ...

2026-07-10T17:45:50Z

Past Bitcoin soft forks that achieved their miner signaling lock-in thresholds early, before their activation timeout windows expired:

1. CheckSequenceVerify (2016)
2. SegWit (2017)
3. Taproot (2021)

Will RDTS be next?

https://beta.predyx.com/market/will-bip-110-lock-in-before-activation-1783355471?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=be700487-7e83-4d1c-b45f-3030c31f601f&shareKind=market

LATEST: 33% chance that a top-10 US Bitcoin ETF issuer files SEC ...

2026-07-10T17:44:15Z

LATEST: 33% chance that a top-10 US Bitcoin ETF issuer files SEC disclosure addressing a BIP-110 chain split by August 15

https://beta.predyx.com/market/a-top-10-us-bitcoin-etf-issuer-files-sec-disclosure-addressing-a-bip-110-chain-split-by-august-15-1783619622?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=aa4ad308-b4e5-48ef-a8b7-f47fc318d1f5&shareKind=market

And now 2+ BTC!!

2026-07-10T16:33:26Z

In reply to nevent1q…67xg
_________________________

And now 2+ BTC!!

NEW: Alternative #BIP110 market is now pricing odds the RDTS will ...

2026-07-10T15:47:48Z

NEW: Alternative #BIP110 market is now pricing odds the RDTS will activate and be enforced by most Proof-of-Work chain by Sept. 10 as opposed to Sept. 7.

14% chance

https://beta.predyx.com/market/will-bip-110-win-enforced-by-bitcoins-most-proof-of-work-chain-by-september-10-2026-1783688100?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=5585e1ef-4831-41e3-ba0e-03cc093d6669&shareKind=market

NEW: 🇲🇦🇫🇷 Can Morocco stun the world and beat France? ...

2026-07-09T19:42:56Z

NEW: 🇲🇦🇫🇷 Can Morocco stun the world and beat France?

https://beta.predyx.com/market/world-cup-quarterfinals-france-vs-morocco-1783625908?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=1b7bfdd6-0e3a-4e2c-9763-4d1686090993&shareKind=market

Will Mitch McConnell be alive in two weeks? ...

2026-07-07T14:38:51Z

Will Mitch McConnell be alive in two weeks?

https://beta.predyx.com/market/will-mitch-mcconnell-be-alive-on-july-19-2026-1783386921?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=d6de5162-2692-4275-a73a-abbb814c60b9&shareKind=market

🚨 NEW - A top-five Bitcoin mining pool signals BIP-110 before ...

2026-07-06T22:20:35Z

🚨 NEW - A top-five Bitcoin mining pool signals BIP-110 before August.

https://beta.predyx.com/market/top-five-bitcoin-mining-pool-signals-bip-110-before-august-1783358129?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=76cf15ce-5ea4-4ed0-8cc8-f5a00a720501&shareKind=market

🚨 NEW - Will a BIP-110 chain split last > 24 hours? ...

2026-07-06T22:19:59Z

🚨 NEW - Will a BIP-110 chain split last > 24 hours?

https://beta.predyx.com/market/will-a-bip-110-chain-split-last-more-than-24-hours-1783375390?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=55d03e54-8c1b-483d-ba43-7ba2a3b5401b&shareKind=market

🚨 NEW - Will BIP-110 achieve it's 55% "lock-in" ...

2026-07-06T16:44:57Z

🚨 NEW - Will BIP-110 achieve it's 55% "lock-in" threshold before activation?

https://beta.predyx.com/market/will-bip-110-lock-in-before-activation-1783355471?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=a7b7a93e-a261-4ec5-bd89-a54768a26f3c&shareKind=market

🚨 NEW - When does Team USA's 🇺🇸 World Cup run end? ...

2026-07-06T14:32:44Z

🚨 NEW - When does Team USA's 🇺🇸 World Cup run end?

https://beta.predyx.com/market/world-cup-us-stage-of-elimination-1783345495?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=acae6eeb-c550-405a-b3b7-20c0e540284a&shareKind=market

🚨 NEW - #Bitcoin mining recorded three consecutive downward ...

2026-06-19T14:46:54Z

🚨 NEW - #Bitcoin mining recorded three consecutive downward difficulty adjustments in summer 2021, during China’s mining crackdown.

Will it happen again in 2026?

https://beta.predyx.com/market/bitcoin-mining-difficulty-falls-in-three-consecutive-adjustments-in-2026-1781880245?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=dc0a66f6-a9d4-4b7d-95ab-58fbd654acdb&shareKind=market

🇺🇸 Celebrate the Fourth of July on PREDYX this year by ...

2026-06-18T12:42:45Z

🇺🇸 Celebrate the Fourth of July on PREDYX this year by trading your predictions on:

⚾️ Padres vs Dodgers
⚾️ Blue Jays vs Mariners
🌭 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest

🚨 UPDATE: Odds US-Iran peace deal signed surge 61% since ...

2026-06-18T12:41:58Z

🚨 UPDATE: Odds US-Iran peace deal signed surge 61% since Wednesday.

92% chance.

https://beta.predyx.com/market/iran-us-peace-deal-signed-by-friday-1781529469?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=f49a388c-154c-457f-8ee1-424e9fc29c36&shareKind=market

🚨 NEW - Which company will IPO first? Anthropic or OpenAI? ...

2026-06-17T21:16:33Z

🚨 NEW - Which company will IPO first? Anthropic or OpenAI?

https://beta.predyx.com/market/will-openai-or-anthropic-ipo-first-1781730780?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=e4fb90b6-3461-4fa2-b50c-870ef9a45679&shareKind=market

🚨 NEW - Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest: Joey Chestnut eats ...

2026-06-17T21:04:35Z

🚨 NEW - Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest: Joey Chestnut eats 70+ hot dogs 🌭

https://beta.predyx.com/market/nathans-hot-dog-eating-contest-joey-chestnut-eats-70-hot-dogs-1781730058?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=72d43939-c97e-4059-aaf0-a629daac2727&shareKind=market

🚨 NEW - MLB All Star Game Winner ...

2026-06-17T20:42:06Z

🚨 NEW - MLB All Star Game Winner

https://beta.predyx.com/market/2026-mlb-all-star-game-winner-1781728812?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=aa863f6b-edac-47e0-9241-42569548586f&shareKind=market

🚨 NEW - UFC 329: Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway ...

2026-06-17T20:33:23Z

🚨 NEW - UFC 329: Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway

https://beta.predyx.com/market/ufc-329-conor-mcgregor-vs-max-holloway-1781728164?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=c567249a-6556-4bdd-a285-142a14e3d552&shareKind=market

🚨 NEW - PGA Tour U.S. Open Winner ...

2026-06-17T20:14:23Z

🚨 NEW - PGA Tour U.S. Open Winner

https://beta.predyx.com/market/pga-tour-us-open-winner-1781727058?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=8edfef42-51d8-41c6-9c2f-da6b6274b266&shareKind=market

🚨 NEW - 2026 Men’s Wimbledon Winner ...

2026-06-17T19:46:57Z

🚨 NEW - 2026 Men’s Wimbledon Winner

https://beta.predyx.com/market/2026-mens-wimbledon-winner-1781725338?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=6477a75b-c28c-4128-ba1c-a61a9d56e8d8&shareKind=market

🚧 Maintenance Alert We are running a few quick updates. We ...

2026-06-15T16:43:49Z

🚧 Maintenance Alert

We are running a few quick updates. We expect to be fully back online and running smoothly in 1-2 hours.

Thank you for your patience! We'll keep you posted right here. 🚀

https://x.com/predyx_markets/status/2066561939174760932?s=20

This market is concerned with symbolic/cultural signaling. It ...

2026-06-15T16:10:09Z

In reply to nevent1q…tcg9
_________________________

This market is concerned with symbolic/cultural signaling. It prices the probability Strategy chairman Michael Saylor will public support BIP-110

11% chance.

https://beta.predyx.com/market/saylor-bip-110-support-in-2026-1769736333?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=e7d1a2a8-5049-42fb-bf50-5f0ece3207d0&shareKind=market

This market is concerned with BIP-110's modified version of ...

2026-06-15T16:09:35Z

In reply to nevent1q…tcg9
_________________________

This market is concerned with BIP-110's modified version of BIP-9 Miner Activated Softfork activation approach pricing how many mined Bitcoin blocks will signal for BIP-110 BEFORE the mandatory signaling period.

57% chance - 50-999 blocks.

https://beta.predyx.com/market/how-many-blocks-will-signal-for-bip-110-before-mandatory-signalling-1779115396?ref=98d6db0f64aafbfd

The next most popular BIP-110 PREDYX market assumes the softfork ...

2026-06-15T16:09:17Z

In reply to nevent1q…tcg9
_________________________

The next most popular BIP-110 PREDYX market assumes the softfork will cause a chain split and prices the probability of the token created by the chain split being listed on a major centralized exchange by the end of the year.

16% chance.

https://beta.predyx.com/market/bip-110-chain-token-on-major-cex-by-end-of-2026-1772033542?ref=8c9fd5fe3d08c875&shareOg=3f76b1a2-2d6b-4ae3-b4d3-01ace68bdfad&shareKind=market

PREDYX’s most liquid, highest-volume market is pricing whether ...

2026-06-15T16:08:54Z

In reply to nevent1q…tcg9
_________________________

PREDYX’s most liquid, highest-volume market is pricing whether or not BIP-110 will activate and achieve consensus enforcement by its proponents’ stated deadline of September 1-7, 2026.

7% chance.

https://beta.predyx.com/market/will-bip-110-activate-and-be-enforced-on-bitcoin-by-sept-1-2026-1770282509?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=ad1d5739-4b68-4965-8b32-fbf2f2733ea6&shareKind=market

🧵 PREDYX's BIP-110 prediction markets. Bitcoin is less ...

2026-06-15T16:08:22Z

🧵 PREDYX's BIP-110 prediction markets.

Bitcoin is less than 10,000 blocks away from its most contentious fork fight in years.

BIP-110 supporters want to keep Bitcoin focused on "being money" while critics say the proposal is technically deficient and poses too many risks to the protocol.

PREDYX's BIP-110 prediction markets function like futures markets, letting traders price the probability of activation. The market price becomes a real-time signal of expectations, while participants can take positions based on how they think miners, developers, node operators, and the broader Bitcoin ecosystem will respond.

There are currently four actively traded prediction markets pricing outcomes related to BIP-110 on PREDYX 👇

🚨 NEW - 60% chance Iran-US peace deal signed on Friday. ...

2026-06-15T13:23:28Z

🚨 NEW - 60% chance Iran-US peace deal signed on Friday.

https://beta.predyx.com/market/iran-us-peace-deal-signed-by-friday-1781529469?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=c1ff9a26-c01f-4219-a774-f18326a9207c&shareKind=market

Odds that any single PREDYX market hits 1 BTC in trading volume ...

2026-06-15T13:00:02Z

Odds that any single PREDYX market hits 1 BTC in trading volume this year hit 98%.

https://beta.predyx.com/market/any-single-predyx-market-hits-1-btc-volume-in-2026-1771863552?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=7ae25dc9-5dfa-4689-9839-df1e02561f7b&shareKind=market

PREDYX's most liquid market, approaching 1 BTC, forecasts a ...

2026-06-15T12:55:52Z

PREDYX's most liquid market, approaching 1 BTC, forecasts a 7% chance that BIP-110 RDTS successfully activates.

https://beta.predyx.com/market/will-bip-110-activate-and-be-enforced-on-bitcoin-by-sept-1-2026-1770282509?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=b9c43c49-42eb-46b3-ac9a-d80404da4b8a&shareKind=market

🇮🇱 NEW - Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election? ...

2026-06-15T12:51:17Z

🇮🇱 NEW - Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?

- Gadi Eizenkot
- Naftali Bennett
- Itamar Ben-Gvir
- Benjamin Netanyahu

https://beta.predyx.com/market/prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-2026-election-1781525545?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=29c6404d-c097-4287-9124-0334545b27e5&shareKind=market

🚨 NEW - Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? ...

2026-06-15T11:48:11Z

🚨 NEW - Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

49% chance.

https://beta.predyx.com/market/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-15-1781523847?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=054dc41f-2179-4658-8c76-082fc28160b5&shareKind=market

Hi Marcus, thanks for the feedback and for being a PREDYX user. ...

2026-06-13T11:51:21Z

In reply to nevent1q…45kd
_________________________

Hi Marcus, thanks for the feedback and for being a PREDYX user.

First, we'd like to apologize if we've missed any of your previous questions. Have you submitted a support ticket in the past that didn't receive a response? If so, please let us know.

Regarding market creator liquidity: PREDYX currently uses LMSR, which requires a minimum liquidity subsidy from the market creator. In return, creators can earn up to 15% of all sats wagered on their market, depending on market activity and the fee rate they choose themselves.

Creators may incur losses if a market doesn't generate enough trading activity on both sides and therefore doesn't accumulate enough fees to offset the initial subsidy. For this reason, we generally recommend creating markets that allow for meaningful price movement and participation from both sides, which increases the likelihood of recovering the initial liquidity through fees.

We're also currently building out our documentation to better explain topics like this. Most of the documentation is already available at https://docs.predyx.com, and we're continuously expanding it.

Please feel free to reach out with any additional questions or feedback on support@predyx.com. We genuinely appreciate it and are always looking to improve.

Hi, this is only one of the ways to sign in on PREDYX. We also ...

2026-06-13T11:37:49Z

In reply to nevent1q…fzzc
_________________________

Hi, this is only one of the ways to sign in on PREDYX.

We also support Lightning and Email sign-in, so users can choose the option that works best for them.

Thank you.

Do you have Cash App or any other Bitcoin wallet w/ ...

2026-06-12T15:08:13Z

Do you have Cash App or any other Bitcoin wallet w/ Lightning⚡️?

If so, you can sign up and place your first bet on PREDYX.COM in less than 60 seconds!

Just create a username/password, select a market, and buy Yes ✅ or No 🚫 on the outcome.

It's that easy!

West Virginia and Ole Miss are nearly tied to win the Rocco's ...

2026-06-12T13:21:57Z

West Virginia and Ole Miss are nearly tied to win the Rocco's Jello Shot Challenge going into Opening day at the College World Series!

https://beta.predyx.com/market/2026-roccos-college-world-series-jello-shot-challenge-winner-1780952841?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=cfb74dcf-a2af-448b-82f4-3386fea1b33f&shareKind=market

BREAKING: Ole Miss and West Virginia baseball fans fans have ...

2026-06-12T12:55:39Z

BREAKING: Ole Miss and West Virginia baseball fans fans have already drank 3209 jell-o shots 👀

The College World Series doesn’t even start until tomorrow!

https://beta.predyx.com/market/2026-roccos-college-world-series-jello-shot-challenge-winner-1780952841?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=1c91ee29-e484-402f-b90c-d3e5e5f40dc5&shareKind=market

🚨 NEW - SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap Above $2T ...

2026-06-11T21:29:12Z

🚨 NEW - SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap Above $2T

https://beta.predyx.com/market/spacex-ipo-closing-market-cap-above-2-trillion-1781212905?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=c6e40cdd-d338-493a-884f-7145d0c09fdb&shareKind=market

🍊 NEW - Will total scrap deposited on the Mandarin RUST server ...

2026-06-11T17:24:38Z

🍊 NEW - Will total scrap deposited on the Mandarin RUST server exceed 10,000,000 this cycle wipe?

https://beta.predyx.com/market/which-player-will-deposit-the-most-scrap-on-the-orange-rust-server-this-wipe-1781155598?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=0d6deb43-04e5-4536-9511-0adb70877ba7&shareKind=market

🍊 NEW - Which player will deposit the most scrap on The ...

2026-06-11T17:20:08Z

🍊 NEW - Which player will deposit the most scrap on The Orange Mart (nprofile…wlck) RUST server this wipe cycle?

https://beta.predyx.com/market/which-player-will-deposit-the-most-scrap-on-the-orange-rust-server-this-wipe-1781155598?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=0d6deb43-04e5-4536-9511-0adb70877ba7&shareKind=market

NEW - Zcash falls below $200 before reaching $500 ...

2026-06-10T21:24:52Z

NEW - Zcash falls below $200 before reaching $500

https://beta.predyx.com/market/zcash-falls-below-200-before-reaching-500-1781126568?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=f1ef6d15-5e0b-4e52-9736-8993c92bde77&shareKind=market

NEW - eCash Bitcoin hard fork listed on major CEX by 2027? ...

2026-06-10T20:11:21Z

NEW - eCash Bitcoin hard fork listed on major CEX by 2027?

https://beta.predyx.com/market/ecash-bitcoin-hard-fork-listed-on-a-major-cex-by-2027-1781121822?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=b8a524b0-ebc3-4b05-94cd-387bf8b8c908&shareKind=market

NEW - Which Bitcoin treasury company will be the next to sell? ...

2026-06-10T19:14:57Z

NEW - Which Bitcoin treasury company will be the next to sell?

https://beta.predyx.com/market/next-treasury-company-to-sell-bitcoin-1781118443?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=db9bdec3-294d-4f65-b623-9a35fb0da885&shareKind=market

NEW - @nprofile…n4sc by @nprofile…6un7 sold in Costco by? ...

2026-06-10T17:56:12Z

NEW - PeonyLaneWine (nprofile…n4sc) by BenJustman (nprofile…6un7) sold in Costco by?

https://beta.predyx.com/market/peony-lane-wine-sold-in-costco-by-1781113893?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=95b4bde8-3c8c-4a3c-9c46-e953d433f1b4&shareKind=market

One more day to go... Pick your winners, trade your convictions, ...

2026-06-10T17:07:25Z

One more day to go...

Pick your winners, trade your convictions, and follow the action all tournament long to find out who will win the #FIFAWorldCup 🏆 on PREDYX.

🇺🇸 NEW - UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria ...

2026-06-10T17:06:27Z

🇺🇸 NEW - UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria

https://beta.predyx.com/market/ufc-freedom-250-justin-gaethje-vs-ilia-topuria-1781110458?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=437ff9a0-264c-4327-a800-b6e20b4e1101&shareKind=market

🇺🇸 NEW - UFC Freedom 250: Alex Pereira vs Ciryl Gane ...

2026-06-10T17:05:37Z

🇺🇸 NEW - UFC Freedom 250: Alex Pereira vs Ciryl Gane

https://beta.predyx.com/market/ufc-freedom-250-alex-pereira-vs-ciryl-gane-1781110928?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=f658b5c7-7859-49a1-9f24-9df703b8e0ef&shareKind=market

PREDYX's prediction markets are for ANYONE. All you need is ...

2026-06-09T18:45:11Z

PREDYX's prediction markets are for ANYONE.

All you need is Bitcoin to buy the future you believe in or sell the one you don't at http://PREDYX.COM

Hunter Biden's odds of running for president in 2028 continue ...

2026-06-09T16:29:41Z

Hunter Biden's odds of running for president in 2028 continue to rise, up another 19%.

35% chance.

https://beta.predyx.com/market/hunter-biden-runs-for-president-in-2028-1780578974?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=2dcb995e-3f3e-4dcc-a8d2-6679f3637d54&shareKind=market

13% chance the Supreme Court upholds Trump's order on ...

2026-06-09T16:23:46Z

13% chance the Supreme Court upholds Trump's order on birthright citizenship.

https://beta.predyx.com/market/supreme-court-upholds-trump-birthright-citizenship-order-1775777671?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=1eaca4d1-2890-46bc-ab2c-95664e7fbef6&shareKind=market

Will the Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs in 2026 mark the top? Not ...

2026-06-09T16:21:58Z

Will the Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs in 2026 mark the top? Not according to PREDYX traders.

83% that the AI bubble WILL NOT burst this year.

https://beta.predyx.com/market/ai-bubble-burst-in-2026-1770944471?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=927c44d3-cd10-44b3-bfe2-e8e8a8f1a761&shareKind=market

The NCAA Men's College World Series #Omaha field is set⚾️ ...

2026-06-09T16:20:21Z

The NCAA Men's College World Series #Omaha field is set⚾️

NEW PREDYX market just dopped! Who ya got?

https://beta.predyx.com/market/2026-mens-college-world-series-winner-1781019796?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=79ab8d02-e938-40da-9641-b13269e4b918&shareKind=market

🚨 NEW: FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried formally applied for a ...

2026-06-08T15:56:30Z

🚨 NEW: FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried formally applied for a presidential pardon.

10% chance Trump pardons SBF.

https://beta.predyx.com/market/donald-trump-pardons-sam-bankman-fried-1780933967?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=8a35cc5f-5e5e-46c1-ab7d-86c81fd6b0b1&shareKind=market

JUST IN: Kimi Antonelli now has a 90% chance of becoming World ...

2026-06-08T15:36:38Z

JUST IN: Kimi Antonelli now has a 90% chance of becoming World Champion in everyone's least favorite F1 season.

https://beta.predyx.com/market/formula-one-world-champion-2026-1767546718?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=cd15c560-91c6-4c62-840b-95eab41c732f&shareKind=market

🚨 NEW: 77% chance SpaceX closes above its final IPO price on ...

2026-06-08T15:22:53Z

🚨 NEW: 77% chance SpaceX closes above its final IPO price on Monday, July 7, 2026.

https://beta.predyx.com/market/spacex-ipo-close-1780864645?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=ffd00c2f-4bb5-41ad-a107-258ec8aec685&shareKind=market

@nprofile…pxl4 User added liquidity is still a month or two ...

2026-06-08T15:21:02Z

In reply to nevent1q…2l2u
_________________________

toxicbitcoiner (nprofile…pxl4) User added liquidity is still a month or two away but we added CDA/CLOB to all World Cup markets so you can place limit orders and create implicit liquidity.

We hear you. Will try to get an update on user added liquidity ...

2026-06-07T16:13:45Z

In reply to nevent1q…sw89
_________________________

We hear you. Will try to get an update on user added liquidity and we will boost the liquidity for these markets if interest/activity picks up for World Cup markets.

🚨 ALL 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage markets are now LIVE on ...

2026-06-07T15:24:54Z

🚨 ALL 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage markets are now LIVE on PREDYX.

Who will advance from each group? Who will disappoint? Which underdog will shock the world?

Pick your winners, trade your convictions, and follow the action all tournament long.

https://predyx.com/category/soccer?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e

Attention College Baseball fans! ⚾️ Follow the 2026 Men's ...

2026-06-05T19:35:59Z

Attention College Baseball fans! ⚾️

Follow the 2026 Men's College World Series with PREDYX — your source for #CWS prediction markets, prop bets, and real-time crowd forecasting.

Sign up today at http://PREDYX.com

🚨 NEW — Artificial General Intelligence achieved by 2027? ...

2026-06-05T19:35:16Z

🚨 NEW — Artificial General Intelligence achieved by 2027?

https://beta.predyx.com/market/agi-achieved-by-2027-1780618341?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=f17d2be1-61ed-4eaf-8a3d-63a43a51ecff&shareKind=market

🐸 NEW — Nakamoto Holdings ($NAKA) delisted from the Nasdaq ...

2026-06-05T19:34:04Z

🐸 NEW — Nakamoto Holdings ($NAKA) delisted from the Nasdaq in 2026.

https://beta.predyx.com/market/nakamoto-holdings-naka-delisted-from-the-nasdaq-in-2026-1780685371?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=dbb6037e-9a9d-4bf8-8155-f48c68842a68&shareKind=market

🚨 NEW - Will Michael Saylor Crash Out In 2026? ...

2026-06-05T16:10:32Z

🚨 NEW - Will Michael Saylor Crash Out In 2026?

https://beta.predyx.com/market/will-michael-saylor-crash-out-in-2026-1780675338?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=484c3236-7fe1-4cce-95a7-acdb63079e14&shareKind=market

Will Trump be alive on July 1, 2026? ...

2026-06-03T18:28:15Z

Will Trump be alive on July 1, 2026?

https://beta.predyx.com/market/will-djt-make-it-to-july-2026-1762846036?shareOg=3a246f84-60d0-4ccc-9b3e-b814c4be9bd0&shareKind=market

quoting
nevent1q…4tga
I believe Donald Trump is dead and it is being covered up by the White House, and there is a whole series of negotiation happening between the Vance and Rubio camp. I believe he died yesterday. I believe AI voice technology may have been used to "make calls".

Minnesota has become the first state to ban prediction markets. ...

2026-05-21T13:26:55Z

Minnesota has become the first state to ban prediction markets. Governor Tim Walz signed a bill which makes it a felony to own, operate, or advertise prediction markets in the state.

https://beta.predyx.com/market/tim-walz-faces-criminal-charges-by-1767020323?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=5668fcaf-a900-40e4-9628-27bae4c033f1&shareKind=market

🚨 NEW PREDYX MARKET: Will @nprofile…kx96 fix the UX bug for ...

2026-05-08T17:30:26Z

🚨 NEW PREDYX MARKET: Will Cake Wallet (nprofile…kx96) fix the UX bug for Android, that resets the amount anytime a user changes the coin to be swapped, by August?

https://beta.predyx.com/market/cake-wallet-v612-bug-fixed-by-2026-09-01-1778258099?shareOg=8334ea4b-d2d5-4057-bac9-ede91fb87e61&shareKind=market

🚨 NEW PREDYX MARKET: Swan Bitcoin wins its lawsuit vs Tether ...

2026-05-07T15:11:49Z

🚨 NEW PREDYX MARKET: Swan Bitcoin wins its lawsuit vs Tether related to Swan’s mining business dispute.

https://beta.predyx.com/market/swan-bitcoin-wins-lawsuit-vs-tether-1778165561?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=60571ed8-812e-460b-af0b-62eda774ecb4&shareKind=market

JUST IN: Ferrari sets price of first electric car at over ...

2026-04-21T15:00:57Z

JUST IN: Ferrari sets price of first electric car at over $640,000 - Bloomberg

JUST IN: Odds of #BIP110 soft fork activation and enforcement now ...

2026-04-14T12:35:09Z

JUST IN: Odds of #BIP110 soft fork activation and enforcement now just 6.64%

https://beta.predyx.com/market/will-bip-110-activate-and-be-enforced-on-bitcoin-by-sept-1-2026-1770282509

🚨 NEW PREDYX MARKET: Who will the 'Finding Satoshi' ...

2026-04-14T12:08:17Z

🚨 NEW PREDYX MARKET: Who will the 'Finding Satoshi' documentary, about #Bitcoin's pseudonymous creator, identify as Satoshi Nakamoto?

https://beta.predyx.com/market/satoshi-identified-by-finding-satoshi-documentary-1776167412

At this point of time - no you can't add more liquidity. ...

2026-03-12T22:33:27Z

In reply to nevent1q…mul3
_________________________

At this point of time - no you can't add more liquidity.
After we launch CDA markets, you can dynamically increase/decrease liquidity by becoming a market-maker.

> 1. Can anyone make their own market? Yes, anyone can create ...

2026-03-12T01:03:21Z

In reply to nevent1q…mj5r
_________________________

> 1. Can anyone make their own market?
Yes, anyone can create a market.

> 2. It then has to be approved by Predyx?
No, it doesn't need to be approved by us. However we have an exception for death markets in our TOS. If any user creates a death, we will disable it.

> 3. Does the user provide the liquidity?

Yes at this point of time, creator provides the initial liquidity. We're in the process of launching hybrid CDA/CLOB Markets within a month or two, where the majority of the liquidity will be provided by the market-makers.

> 4. If yes, what optionality does the user have for managing the liquidity? Are there set parameters?

At this point of time, PREDYX uses LMSR AMM (Automated Market Maker) for markets. Thus the creator provides the WCL (Worst Case Loss) for the markets fully configurable with Liquidity. The creator gets to keep 95% of the fees generated from the markets.

In short , here's how the liquidity and WCL works:

WCL = b * ln(N)

b = liquidity parameter
N = number of outcomes
ln = natural logarithm

For example a market with 1M sats liquidity (b), the creator provides 693147.18 sats as WCL for a YES/NO market.

b = 1_000_000
outcomes = 2

wcl = b * Math.log(outcomes)
wcl = 693147.18 sats

With LMSR AMM the liquidity is static, this will change drastically when we launch hybrid CDA (less than two months) where majority of the liquidity will be provided by market-makers.

Thus if the creator is good at creating high demand markets, this can become his income stream where he/she gets to keep 95% now the market fees.

> 5. Who settles outcomes?

At this point, we (PREDYX team) resolve the markets. However, we're also building UMA style oracle for markets resolutions. Once the UMA Oracle is out (in less than 2 months) - then the markets will be resolved by group of oracles.

PREDYX is looking for funding Hey Bitcoiners, We’ve been ...

2026-03-11T07:42:52Z

PREDYX is looking for funding

Hey Bitcoiners,

We’ve been building Predyx, a Lightning-native prediction market where markets are priced and settled directly in sats.

The idea is simple: prediction markets should work like the rest of Bitcoin - open, global, and programmable - with Lightning handling the payments layer.

A few design choices behind Predyx:
• Markets priced in sats (1 share = 1 sat payout if correct)
• Lightning pay-per-trade model (no deposits)
• LMSR market maker for automated pricing
• CDA (Continuous Double Auction) market engine in development
• UMA-style oracle system for market resolution in development
• Separate wallets per market to reduce custody risk
• Anyone can create markets and provide liquidity

The goal is to make micro prediction markets possible - things that only work when transactions are instant and extremely small.

Examples of markets currently running:
• Bitcoin price markets
• sports markets
• political outcomes
• tech and macro events

The beta is live and running, but the next stage requires capital and strategic help to scale:
• deeper liquidity across markets
• infrastructure scaling
• Lightning liquidity and integrations
• growth and distribution
• legal and regulatory work for U.S. compliance (CFTC)

If you’re a builder, Lightning node operator, or investor interested in Bitcoin-native financial infrastructure, I’d be interested in talking.

Happy to answer any technical questions here.

If you want to see what we’ve built so far, the beta is live: https://beta.predyx.com

Creators

2026-02-18T10:49:50Z

In reply to nevent1q…us2w
_________________________

Creators

Anyone can create a market on Predyx. If you think there can be ...

2026-02-17T14:29:08Z

In reply to nevent1q…whgd
_________________________

Anyone can create a market on Predyx. If you think there can be better version or something new, please go ahead. PREDYX welcomes all equally.

As a Bitcoin-Powered Prediction Market, we believe in remaining non bs and open to all.

Worth a watch: an interesting take on BIP-110’s future. ...

2026-02-12T18:36:06Z

Worth a watch: an interesting take on BIP-110’s future.

Featuring Predyx Market: Will BIP-110 activate and be enforced on Bitcoin by Sept 1, 2026?

22:30-25:30 👀

https://x.com/predyx_markets/status/2022001738786779290?s=20