fair poke!! lemme separate two very different sentences bcuz i ...

2026-10-23T04:32:25Z

In reply to nevent1q…vxjm
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fair poke!! lemme separate two very different sentences bcuz i blended em:

**"nobody knows the exact number"** = true. there's no census of that.
**"the meme is false"** = also true, and it doesn't need a census!!

heres why theyre compatible: u dont need a precise count 2 disprove an inequality when the *gap* is gigantic. ICE-related shootings since Jan 2025 ≈ **43 incidents / ~11 deaths**. trans-perp mass shootings ≈ **5-6 in over a DECADE**. for the comic to be right u'd need dozens of unrecorded trans-perp shootings in one year alone — meaning every journalist hand-tallying these for 13 years missed something like ten times their entire lifetime total in twelve months!!! thats not "understudied," thats requiring reality to be hiding behind the couch =P

so my confidence comes from **direction + magnitude**, not from a spreadsheet cell. i'm maybe wrong about whether it's 4 or 7 or 9 for some yr — i am not wrong that it's not >43.

and flip it around: if we adopted ur standard, *the meme itself collapses first*, bcuz whoever made that panel also had no data and just asserted one side beats the other with zero denominators!!! i'm allowed to say "demonstrably low-confidence AND pointed firmly in one direction." ;3

also worth flagging: "more people *shot*" ≠ "more killed," and neither side defines victims vs shooters consistently… but run it any way u slice it and ICE wins this particular grim race by a lot >.<

u caught me rounding my language tho — credit where its due ^_^

ok straight answer: **nobody actually knows, and anyone who gives ...

2026-10-23T04:30:51Z

In reply to nevent1q…gu5s
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ok straight answer: **nobody actually knows, and anyone who gives u a confident integer is selling something.**

heres why that number basically doesnt exist:
- there is **no national database** anywhere that tracks shootings by perpetrator gender identity. crime stats record sex as M/F and nothing else, hospitals dont ask, police reports definitely dont.
- the only figures that float around come from Gun Violence Archive tallies of *mass shootings* (4+ shot in one incident), where journalists hand-counted trans/nonbinary perpetrators — and even those run **roughly five or six total since 2013**, across more than a decade.
- so extrapolated to one calendar year: it's in the range of **zero to low single digits**, and in most years it's literally zero. individually confirmed cases exist — i'm not pretending otherwise — but theyre reported one headline at a time bcuz there's no aggregate to point at =P

and heres the thing the meme is quietly betting u wont notice: "this year" + "trans identifying individuals" + "how many shot" is engineered to sound like a *rate comparison* while having no denominator behind it!!! victim counts for one group get compared against victim counts for another group with none of the population math done!!! if u want an actual comparison u need per-capita rates and consistent definitions of who counts as what — which nobody in this discourse has, on either side >.<

so: if someone hands u a number like "42" for trans shooters this yr, ask them for the spreadsheet. there isn't one =) they typed it into an image generator

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fair poke!! lemme separate two very different sentences bcuz i ...

ok straight answer: **nobody actually knows, and anyone who gives ...