Nostr notes by blissfulsats

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2026-10-24T23:56:01Z

https://x.com/apompliano/status/2114001290246103489?s=46&t=2dnzdyjtW2NLX1w2Q73rWg

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2026-10-24T23:53:11Z

https://x.com/apompliano/status/2114001290246103489?s=46&t=2dnzdyjtW2NLX1w2Q73rWg

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2026-10-24T23:50:59Z

https://x.com/midnightleakshq/status/2114088406158360589?s=46&t=2dnzdyjtW2NLX1w2Q73rWg

https://youtube.com/shorts/xmcDhyv_8OM?is=iGqBTKup3ChZukNM

2026-10-24T23:48:42Z

https://youtube.com/shorts/xmcDhyv_8OM?is=iGqBTKup3ChZukNM

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2026-10-24T23:48:11Z

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https://youtube.com/shorts/4xE9X8tyxR0?is=FAWy0U8I1WkD7yeL

2026-10-24T23:36:22Z

https://youtube.com/shorts/4xE9X8tyxR0?is=FAWy0U8I1WkD7yeL

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2026-10-24T22:28:34Z

https://x.com/prometheanactn/status/2114048787648053567/video/1?s=46

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2026-10-24T16:25:01Z

https://visserjhrv.substack.com/p/reversing-the-decline-in-hrv-a-systems?r=148ef&utm_medium=ios

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2026-10-24T16:14:05Z

https://visserjhrv.substack.com/p/reversing-the-decline-in-hrv-a-systems?r=148ef&utm_medium=ios

https://youtu.be/6czo-C3FU7I?is=WY5VhU6-Gxmr18Z6

2026-10-24T13:28:30Z

https://youtu.be/6czo-C3FU7I?is=WY5VhU6-Gxmr18Z6

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2026-10-24T13:08:11Z

https://x.com/realwhitehats/status/2113831522893472102?s=46&t=2dnzdyjtW2NLX1w2Q73rWg

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2026-10-24T13:05:10Z

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2026-10-24T13:01:55Z

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2026-10-24T12:52:49Z

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2026-10-23T17:35:18Z

https://pomp.substack.com/p/five-friday-charts-what-to-take-from?r=148ef&utm_medium=ios

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2026-10-23T11:24:45Z

https://substack.com/@teeashby/note/p-218550938?r=148ef&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action

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2026-10-23T11:16:55Z

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2026-10-23T11:16:35Z

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2026-10-21T16:59:27Z

https://pomp.substack.com/p/is-this-robotics-2022-chatgpt-moment?r=148ef&utm_medium=ios

MARTY'S BENT Real Revenue, Paper Losses Yesterday I asked ...

2026-10-21T16:47:39Z

MARTY'S BENT
Real Revenue, Paper Losses

Yesterday I asked what kind of AI slowdown we might be heading into. Today I want to ask a simpler question. Who is actually paying for all of this? I'll be honest up front. After the last 24 hours, the answer is messier than either the doomers or the boosters want it to be.

Start with the numbers that dropped after the bell yesterday. SpaceX reported its third quarter and blew the doors off. Revenue came in at $14.6 billion, up 161% from a year ago, against the $12.86 billion analysts expected according to Visible Alpha consensus cited by Fortune. The AI business, which SpaceX now calls Super Intelligence, did $7.6 billion on its own. That's up 830% year over year and more than a billion dollars above what the Street was looking for. SpaceX says the growth came primarily from new cloud services agreements, the Cursor acquisition and more people using Grok. Starlink grew revenue 69% and nearly doubled its operating income. This isn't a company asking you to imagine a future business. These are real numbers.

Now look at the other side of the ledger. SpaceX spent $16.4 billion on capex for the AI segment in the quarter and about $20 billion overall. That's more than the company brought in. Operating income was $2.8 billion, and the $4.4 billion net income headline got help from interest income, other income and a tax benefit below the operating line. Fortune says analysts expect SpaceX's debt to go from $50.7 billion last year to $350 billion by 2029. And part of that AI revenue, per Fortune, comes from leasing compute to Anthropic, which agreed to use all of the capacity at SpaceX's Colossus 1 data center.

Which brings us to Anthropic. The Wall Street Journal got its hands on a draft of Anthropic's IPO prospectus, and the number that ripped across X yesterday was an $80.7 billion net loss for the first half of the year. A lot of people read that as proof the whole thing is a house of cards. I think that's a misreading. About $72 billion of that loss, per Quartz's writeup of the reporting, is an accounting charge tied to convertible notes, IOUs that holders can swap for Anthropic stock. As Anthropic's valuation went parabolic, those notes became more valuable, and accounting rules make the company book that increase as a loss. No cash left the building. Jack Farley put it well: "When a company issues convertible notes // warrants and the market cap 1000xes, the on paper loss from being short calls is massive. Not fundamental." PitchBook expects the charge to stop for notes that convert to shares at the IPO. That's not a loss that needs to recur every year.

One detail tells you how tangled this has gotten. PitchBook notes that Amazon, one of the noteholders, marked its Anthropic notes up from $42.2 billion at the end of March to $97.9 billion at the end of June. Anthropic's paper loss is, in part, Amazon's paper gain.

The real spending is still enormous. Anthropic put close to $9 billion into compute and infrastructure in the first half, up from $2.3 billion a year earlier, and has committed to at least $518 billion over ten years. It also told investors its third-quarter revenue hit $16.8 billion. Real revenue. Real spending. Real commitments.

So is it all fine? This is where Ramp comes back in. Ara Kharazian, Ramp's lead economist, posted yesterday that 80% of business spend on OpenAI and Anthropic comes from 1% of firms, and within that top 1%, 80% are venture-backed. His chart puts it at 80.4% of top AI spenders backed by venture capital, compared to 13.1% of median spenders. Ramp's customers skew toward startups, so this isn't a census of the economy. But these are exactly the companies paying for the tokens. Ara's warning is that if the trade doesn't work out, "we have a cascading effect of large customers simultaneously pulling back their AI spend."

Chamath framed this better than the people calling it circular. Last week he wrote that he suspects 70 to 80% of revenues at AI companies come from other AI companies that raised venture money. "This is not a circular revenue problem but it is a revenue quality problem." I think that's the right lens. The money is real. The tokens get used. The question is how durable the customer is. A dollar from a manufacturer that found a way to do more with fewer people is worth more than a dollar from a startup burning through its Series B. Same line on the income statement. Very different quality.

I also need to correct something I've been leaning on. It's easy to wave all of this away as cheap money. It isn't, at least not anymore. The Fed took rates from near zero in early 2022 to above 5% by the middle of 2023, and money has been expensive for regular people ever since. Ask anybody who has tried to buy a house. And yet, through September, AI companies captured about 83% of all U.S. venture funding, according to Social Capital. Capital got more expensive for everyone, and it still piled into one trade. That's conviction. It's also concentration. A handful of giants and the startups orbiting them are financing, supplying and buying from each other while the rest of the economy pays up to borrow.

Where does that leave us? Honestly, up in the air. SpaceX shows the demand is real and that some of these businesses can throw off serious profits. Anthropic's scary headline loss is mostly accounting. Ramp and Chamath show the revenue is concentrated in customers whose budgets depend on the next round. All of that can be true at the same time. What I'm watching is whether the customers paying the AI bill can keep paying it once the venture money stops being so easy to raise, especially with SpaceX alone expected to carry hundreds of billions in debt by the end of the decade.

Contrast this system with bitcoin. Nobody at a committee meeting gets to decide what it costs to borrow it. Nobody can print more of it to bail out a bad bet, and it doesn't care whose revenue is high quality. It keeps producing blocks, and it gives anyone who holds it a way to save that doesn't depend on any of this going right. Keep an eye on the quality of the revenue, freaks. Not just the size of it.

SIGNAL

https://youtube.com/@goldengirlpodcast?si=aG9DquhIDTSCYiN1

2026-10-21T12:40:30Z

https://youtube.com/@goldengirlpodcast?si=aG9DquhIDTSCYiN1

https://youtu.be/njud5S27Mvc?is=BvoMfaHMuMKiJeFH

2026-10-21T10:38:37Z

https://youtu.be/njud5S27Mvc?is=BvoMfaHMuMKiJeFH

https://youtu.be/chWa7cjM6RI?is=MTJpF7Lrh_kYYoXy

2026-10-20T18:57:57Z

https://youtu.be/chWa7cjM6RI?is=MTJpF7Lrh_kYYoXy

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2026-10-17T02:31:07Z

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2026-10-17T02:16:24Z

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2026-10-13T16:02:49Z

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https://youtu.be/EIFZ93bXVo0?is=5TT39IvtMAyPFYNj

2026-10-10T04:29:13Z

https://youtu.be/EIFZ93bXVo0?is=5TT39IvtMAyPFYNj

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2026-10-10T03:31:01Z

https://x.com/qmasterpool1/status/2107843425601204544/video/1?s=46

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2026-10-10T03:29:50Z

https://x.com/jessie63335515/status/2107945260034785312/video/1?s=46

https://youtu.be/k8kF8Psh-xw?is=kmLAwI9wSnoYRH_h

2026-10-09T12:36:47Z

https://youtu.be/k8kF8Psh-xw?is=kmLAwI9wSnoYRH_h

https://youtu.be/AEsL5UjlgT4?is=R-kTlYhJX8OANVHV

2026-10-09T12:25:56Z

https://youtu.be/AEsL5UjlgT4?is=R-kTlYhJX8OANVHV

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2026-10-09T12:22:58Z

https://open.substack.com/pub/profstonge/p/latin-americas-populist-revolt?r=148ef&utm_medium=ios

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2026-10-08T20:31:21Z

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2026-10-08T20:27:28Z

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2026-10-08T20:17:10Z

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2026-10-08T20:04:55Z

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2026-10-08T00:34:30Z

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2026-10-07T23:14:10Z

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2026-10-06T13:51:59Z

https://open.substack.com/pub/pomp/p/i-never-do-this-but-i-need-a-favor?r=148ef&utm_medium=ios

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2026-10-06T13:25:16Z

https://open.substack.com/pub/dailybitcoiner/p/if-london-ran-the-dollar-why-did?r=148ef&utm_medium=ios

https://youtu.be/1EORbL8N-R8?is=tkuGB1QqEMpjzCkB

2026-10-06T02:49:02Z

https://youtu.be/1EORbL8N-R8?is=tkuGB1QqEMpjzCkB

https://youtu.be/Dh4b4c-RzE8?is=ioAe1Gm0oyovQhT9

2026-10-05T23:35:50Z

https://youtu.be/Dh4b4c-RzE8?is=ioAe1Gm0oyovQhT9

Trump Is Telling You to Own Bitcoin Trump is doing a pretty good ...

2026-10-05T21:18:23Z

Trump Is Telling You to Own Bitcoin

Trump is doing a pretty good job of explaining why you should own bitcoin. In his interview with TIME published last week, he said, "Certain levels of inflation will also pay off that debt very rapidly. Very rapidly."

Very rapidly! I'm sure the people trying to save enough money to buy a house or start a family will be thrilled to hear this. They've spent years trying to get ahead of rising prices and the president is talking about how useful more inflation could be. Useful for the government that owes the money, at least.

John Arnold and I recorded this morning and spent a lot of time trying to work through where all of this is heading. I think Trump would much rather inflate his way out of the debt problem than go through a default. He's now saying as much.

The oil situation has improved considerably for the Gulf producers that aren't Iran. Kpler has their crude exports back around prewar levels, with oil moving through Hormuz and alternative routes. Iran is getting squeezed while the countries around it are finding ways to get their oil to buyers. I think this gives Trump more room to maneuver. John pointed out that we still have a problem with refined products, though, and the cost of moving all this oil around hasn't magically gone away. Getting crude onto a ship is good. Getting affordable diesel into the trucks moving materials to the factories you want built is another part of the equation.

Building those factories gets a lot more expensive if borrowing costs stay elevated. Trump wants lower rates. He made that very clear in the same TIME interview, arguing that high interest rates are doing more damage than inflation. This is where John and I kept coming back to the bond market. You can yell about interest rates all you want, but somebody still has to buy the debt. If they think you're going to pay them back in dollars that buy considerably less, why would they settle for a lower yield?

One answer seems to be finding more buyers. We got into stablecoins because they give the government a way to reach people who may never open a U.S. brokerage account or buy a Treasury bill themselves. Someone wants digital dollars. An issuer supplies them and holds reserves behind those tokens. Some of those reserves go into government debt. The San Francisco Fed wrote last week about stablecoin issuers' growing appetite for Treasury securities. You can see why an administration that needs to keep financing itself would find this appealing.

I can understand the appeal to someone who needs access to dollars, too. But I have no desire to mistake easier access to dollars for an escape from what is being done to them. The president just told us he sees inflation as a way to deal with the debt. I would prefer to hold something he can't create more of.

Take a look at Nik Bhatia's bitcoin/gold chart. Bitcoin has broken above the resistance marked around 18 ounces of gold per bitcoin and continued higher in the October 2 snapshot. We talked about this toward the end of the show. An ounce of gold buys less bitcoin after that move.

Put it all together and it looks like bitcoin is ready to rip. We'll see how it plays out, but I'm certainly not looking at what Trump is saying and thinking I need to hold more dollars.

SIGNAL

https://youtu.be/DV2HRveqcZc?is=KpOr8GfDZKUAf4fN

2026-10-04T18:37:53Z

https://youtu.be/DV2HRveqcZc?is=KpOr8GfDZKUAf4fN

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2026-10-04T12:35:26Z

https://x.com/prometheanactn/status/2106722997893546157?s=46&t=2dnzdyjtW2NLX1w2Q73rWg

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2026-10-03T18:09:01Z

https://x.com/prometheanactn/status/2106444850333958201?s=46&t=2dnzdyjtW2NLX1w2Q73rWg

https://youtu.be/yfuLyU4XWEs?is=r_gEM4N0VpaZIaeI

2026-10-03T09:50:36Z

https://youtu.be/yfuLyU4XWEs?is=r_gEM4N0VpaZIaeI

https://youtu.be/iSLUNf-Na68?is=wu_Qu5Y13e24ghEU

2026-10-02T19:30:20Z

https://youtu.be/iSLUNf-Na68?is=wu_Qu5Y13e24ghEU

https://youtu.be/ZfVwQ1aKiDY?is=ncBc6VjUT8XQ_coA

2026-10-02T19:25:59Z

https://youtu.be/ZfVwQ1aKiDY?is=ncBc6VjUT8XQ_coA

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2026-10-02T18:59:31Z

https://open.substack.com/pub/on/p/a-ceo-tried-to-bully-a-journalist?r=148ef&utm_medium=ios

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2026-10-02T18:57:18Z

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2026-10-02T18:48:42Z

https://x.com/robertbodden2/status/2106092166263234716?s=46&t=2dnzdyjtW2NLX1w2Q73rWg

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2026-10-02T18:41:50Z

https://x.com/susankokindaq_2/status/2105749905096474634?s=46&t=2dnzdyjtW2NLX1w2Q73rWg

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2026-10-01T19:03:30Z

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2026-10-01T18:57:10Z

https://x.com/qmasterpool1/status/2105728292095676920?s=46&t=2dnzdyjtW2NLX1w2Q73rWg

https://youtu.be/njud5S27Mvc?is=Pq4FstGyTt5Ch0U8

2026-10-01T16:24:57Z

https://youtu.be/njud5S27Mvc?is=Pq4FstGyTt5Ch0U8

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2026-10-01T13:02:03Z

https://x.com/holden_culotta/status/2105097005756203477?s=46&t=2dnzdyjtW2NLX1w2Q73rWg

https://youtu.be/TmIJZz3y0Xw?is=j7h5gZF5QStHr_kZ

2026-10-01T09:49:25Z

https://youtu.be/TmIJZz3y0Xw?is=j7h5gZF5QStHr_kZ

https://youtu.be/DV2HRveqcZc?is=5Ol2XOFHmybQrz_x

2026-10-01T04:33:58Z

https://youtu.be/DV2HRveqcZc?is=5Ol2XOFHmybQrz_x

https://youtu.be/dXHPcpujZ88?is=d-ZppGh_TwotuDGN this talk, ...

2026-09-30T14:43:47Z

https://youtu.be/dXHPcpujZ88?is=d-ZppGh_TwotuDGN

this talk, Michael Singer explores the role of will on the spiritual path to liberation, distinguishing between two distinct stages: a willful phase and one that exists entirely beyond will.

Key Takeaways:

• The Nature of Will: Singer defines will as a power that emanates from Consciousness—specifically, it is concentrated conscious energy (chit-shakti) (2:51-3:31, 8:06-8:37).
• The First Stage (Willful Effort): Most people need to apply their will to free themselves from internal conditioning, including habits, desires, fears, and anxieties (0:25-1:20).
• Habits as Ruts: He compares habitual thought and emotional patterns to a stream carving a path of least resistance in the earth (28:00-28:20). Breaking these requires a conscious choice to not feed the habit (14:13-15:10, 21:55-22:30).
• Proper Application: Instead of suppressing or expressing these disturbances, the goal is to let them go (33:45-34:08). This involves staying in the "seat of consciousness" and allowing the energy to pass through without touching it (35:05-37:25).
• The Second Stage (Beyond Will): Once a person has released their internal baggage, the use of will actually becomes a hindrance. At this stage, the path is about "ceasing to do"—a total surrender or release that allows one's consciousness to merge back into the ocean of the universal, a state beyond individual identity (0:56-1:17, 48:36-50:18).
• Practical Practice: He suggests using "low-hanging fruit"—small, daily irritations like heat or traffic—to practice the technique of relaxing into the experience rather than resisting or reacting to it (39:15-43:30).

To be beyond will represents the second, deeper stage of the spiritual path. While the first stage requires the active application of willpower to free yourself from your habits, anxieties, and internal baggage, the second stage is defined by ceasing to do (0:56-1:17, 49:17-49:21).

Key aspects of being beyond will include:

• Moving from Doing to Being: In this state, you stop trying to manipulate your thoughts or emotions. Instead, you enter a state of complete surrender and allow yourself to simply be (49:17-49:24).
• The Upward Flow: Once you have successfully let go of your internal obstacles, your consciousness naturally aligns with a higher, universal flow. This flow acts almost like a vacuum, pulling your seat of awareness upward away from your limited identity (48:07-48:27).
• Unity with the Whole: This state transcends individual identity. It is described as a drop of water falling into the ocean—the individual consciousness merges back into the ocean of universal consciousness, moving beyond love, joy, and individual experiences into a state of total Oneness (49:35-50:00).

The seat of consciousness refers to the inner, core sense of self—often called the witness consciousness—that observes your mind, emotions, and bodily sensations without being consumed by them (2:00-2:22).

Key aspects of this concept include:

• The Observer: It is the part of you that is aware of what is happening inside you, such as thoughts and feelings, and gives you the ability to either "go with them" or simply "let them go" (2:05-2:48).
• The Source of Will: This inner seat is where your willpower originates. When you are deeply centered, you can feel this power emanate from your consciousness (3:05-3:56).
• Distraction vs. Centering: The speaker explains that while this seat is always there, it often feels hidden because consciousness is frequently "distracted" by the constant noise of external stimuli, thoughts, and emotions (4:23-4:40).
• Spiritual Practice: The goal of the path is to move from being lost in these distractions back to this core seat, where you can remain centered and allow experiences to pass through you freely (37:12-38:06).

https://youtu.be/yfuLyU4XWEs?is=nPAEemP-U8WACqrc

2026-09-30T13:17:46Z

https://youtu.be/yfuLyU4XWEs?is=nPAEemP-U8WACqrc

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2026-09-30T13:14:32Z

https://x.com/_susankokinda/status/2105061829214982590?s=46&t=2dnzdyjtW2NLX1w2Q73rWg

https://youtu.be/oXW5hE7rPPE?is=TxLlEWfX3PHw1DlE

2026-09-29T09:19:28Z

https://youtu.be/oXW5hE7rPPE?is=TxLlEWfX3PHw1DlE

https://youtu.be/JEUboZzZGM4?is=j-5gcNyOr38QjzZi

2026-09-29T02:50:11Z

https://youtu.be/JEUboZzZGM4?is=j-5gcNyOr38QjzZi

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2026-09-28T23:47:25Z

https://jennasside.rocks/p/new-york-declares-war-on-the-amish?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

https://youtu.be/P9l4KGsvIQQ?is=MjyPxOvGp4Vm3BBL

2026-09-28T09:33:01Z

https://youtu.be/P9l4KGsvIQQ?is=MjyPxOvGp4Vm3BBL

https://youtu.be/qzesetIiikI?is=GWDUvqnpqBITpG-p

2026-09-28T06:05:41Z

https://youtu.be/qzesetIiikI?is=GWDUvqnpqBITpG-p

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2026-09-28T05:35:08Z

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2026-09-28T02:21:06Z

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2026-09-28T02:20:15Z

https://x.com/drjackkruse/status/2104243070543798709?s=46&t=2dnzdyjtW2NLX1w2Q73rWg

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2026-09-28T02:19:16Z

https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/2104257118601617855?s=46&t=2dnzdyjtW2NLX1w2Q73rWg