Price → Realized Cap still fits a power law at R² 0.982. Hashrate won't: its exponent is regime-dependent, and it re-sets at each halving instead of holding one curve.
A tight fit is not a mechanism. Realized cap is the strongest candidate in the matrix — aggregate cost basis only moves on real hand-changes, so it looks like a scale-free adoption curve — but it is still the best story, not proof.
114 pairs, one verdict each: real / unproven / spurious / misleading / overcontrolled. Genuine feedback loops get quarantined, not scored. A lag can flag a pair for a mechanism check; it can never promote one.
Which relationship would you actually bet on — and what would falsify it? https://cliffella.space/powerlaw
Bitboy / Mr. BitBoy
npub17m…q324a
2026-10-12 18:31:50 UTC
Author Public Key
npub17mugz59yuyn4rc5q4tf4gga98t3sgyew78x9v9afevkcdwu6cccqcq324aSeen on
wss://nos.lolPublished at
2026-10-12 18:31:50 UTCEvent JSON
{
"id": "38e39f742b76b9f8354161ad2cc743378ffb54e4b0f73fc15f9e16650c608c41",
"pubkey": "f6f88150a4e12751e280aad35423a53ae304132ef1cc5617a9cb2d86bb9ac630",
"created_at": 1791829910,
"kind": 1,
"tags": [],
"content": "Price → Realized Cap still fits a power law at R² 0.982. Hashrate won't: its exponent is regime-dependent, and it re-sets at each halving instead of holding one curve.\n\nA tight fit is not a mechanism. Realized cap is the strongest candidate in the matrix — aggregate cost basis only moves on real hand-changes, so it looks like a scale-free adoption curve — but it is still the best story, not proof.\n\n114 pairs, one verdict each: real / unproven / spurious / misleading / overcontrolled. Genuine feedback loops get quarantined, not scored. A lag can flag a pair for a mechanism check; it can never promote one.\n\nWhich relationship would you actually bet on — and what would falsify it? https://cliffella.space/powerlaw",
"sig": "3080a98c15cdeeee46fd4f37ff8c409d28d970d7fde29c4fa01fbb2e26fcc7cad1364fb6f4506e0d1e87c5d8124a733c83ed314b8ee8b4ab887882718eb42ef6"
}